2040. That’s only 22 years from now (remember 1996?). BP is once again looking into the crystal ball, all the way up to 2040, of which the results are presented in their most recent Energy Outlook (2018 edition).
A prerequisite for understanding future energy demand is GDP(gross domestic product) forecast as a function of population growth. According to BP, world GDP more than doubles during two decades, broadly in line with growth seen over the past 25 years. And, as population reaches 9.2 billion, more than 2.5 billion (1250 times Norway’s population!) will be lifted from low incomes.
“As the world learns to do more with less, demand for energy will be met by the most diverse fuels mix we have ever seen.
Spencer Dale, BP group chief economist
BP therefore concludes that global energy demand will increase by about 35% as global prosperity increases. China and India will account for half of this demand. These figures are not controversial.
Forecasts for the future energy mix is, however, always controversial. BP’s view is that oil, gas, coal and non-fossil fuels (hydro, nuclear, renewables) will each contribute with around 25% in 2040. Renewables will constitute 14% with an annual growth of 7%. This ver 40% of the increase in energy supplies.
For Norway, it is a comforting factor that BP believes that demand for oil will grow (0.5% p.a.) is projected to plateau in the 2030s. Moreover, demand for natural gas will grow strongly (1.6% p.a.) and overtake coal as the second largest source of energy.
“The date at which oil demand will stop growing is highly uncertain and small changes in assumptions can lead to vastly different estimates.
BP Energy Outlook 2018
The world is likely to demand large quantities of oil for many decades to come, BP concludes.