From 2008 through 2011 commercial success rates (CSR) averaged only 34% on the NCS. From 2012 onwards commercial success rates have averaged 24%.
In 2015 the CSR in Norway reached a low of 9% success ratio, recovering to 27% in 2016.
The reasons for this trend – with particular reference to geological plays – will be discussed extensively at the NCS Exploration conference in May. Keith Myers of Westwood Global Energy Group will give a talk entitled “Lessons from NCS drilling performance 2008-2017″.
“Focussing on the post Sverdrup period from 2012 to the end 1Q 2017, 169 exploration wells have been completed, testing 29 plays across the 4 Norwegian Basins and discovering 1.9 billion boe,” Myers says.
It appears that 70% of the discovered volume was found in just 5 plays, with notable declines in CSR for the Middle Jurassic of the Norwegian Sea and Lower Tertiary plays in the North Sea.