Bar chart showing Mean Prospective Resourses (Yet-to-Find). P90 and P10 volume range displayed by the error bars. No risk and volume cut-off applied (OGA, 2018)

4.1 Bboe Yet-to-Find on UKCS

The Oil and Gas Authority (OGA) estimates the Yet-to-Find Prospective resources on the UKCS as 4.1 Bboe in prospects and leads and 11.2 Bboe in plays.

Paul Herrington, Exploration Portfolio Manager at OGA explained at the 2nd Exploration Strategy Conference in Stavanger the workflow behind these numbers, which are reported in the  UK Oil and Gas Reserves and Resources Report (November 2018).

For the first time the estimates were split into two levels: The Lead & Prospect-level Yet-to-Find and the Play-level Yet-to-Find:

  • The leads and prospects inventory consists of prospects submitted for licensing rounds, supplemented by features mapped by the OGA in cooperation with the British Geological Survey (BGS). The leads and prospects must meet a threshold of 10MMboe and a geological chance of success greater than 15%. The industry is notoriously known for overestimating pre-drill volumes and therefore the volume estimation of the prospects has been adjusted by simple calibration of the P99 to play statistics.
  • The play-level estimates are based on Common Risk Segment mapping outside areas with mapped leads and prospects but where reservoir, top seal and hydrocarbon charge may be present. Of course, these resources are much more uncertain and riskier, but should be seen as opportunities for the industry to explore!

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