Anders Wittemann has gathered data illustrating that oil companies have a very optimistic view concerning prospects to be drilled. Typically, risked pre-drill volumes overstates the actual discoveries by a factor of 2. Photo: Halfdan Carstens

Far too optimistic

The oil companies believe they will find much more oil and gas than they actually do on the NCS, Wittemann E&P Consulting claims.

– NCS industry expectations for future discoveries continue to exceed historic performance statistics and actual results, Anders Wittemann of Wittemann E&P Consulting says.

Wittemann will present statistical data proving this point in the NCS Exploration conferenc starting on Wednesday this week.

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Analyses based on sample selections of prospects pre-drill vs. actual wildcat wells drilled show that find size is the key difference, whilst actual (technical) success rates are above expectations.

– Typically, risked pre-drill volumes overstates the actuals by a factor of 2, Wittemann says.

The impact on company strategies and business planning is seen on the ability to forecast future production contributions from exploration, future cash flows and funding requirements and requirements for portfolio management activities, examples of this will be included in the presentation by Wittemann EPC


Illustration: Wittemann E&P Consulting



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